Is The Blue Wave Narrative Overblown?
Republicans have been shaking for the better part of a year listening to mainstream media and pundits boasting that the November midterms will see a “blue wave.” Additionally that President Trump hysteria will produce a backlash the likes of which we have never seen before, and that Democrats will be taking back both the House of Representatives and the Senate in no time. However, this seems to be highly exaggerated.
CNN’s latest poll, conducted October 4-7, claims that, in the “generic ballot” question that asks whether likely voters are inclined to support the Democratic or Republican candidate for the House of Representatives in their local district, Democrats hold a massive 13-point edge, 54-41 percent. However, like most polls, they are unreliable. Just ask President Hillary Clinton.
As previously reported, the CNN poll finds that 63 percent of female likely voters will back the Democrats, compared to only 45 percent of men. Although it is normal for women to be more supportive of Democratic candidates than men, the size of the discrepancy rarely exceeds 10 points.
It also assumes that voters over 65 will favor Democrats by 18 points. This seems odd as older voters generally favor Republican candidates and not people who will promote progressive policies and substantial changes.
The CNN poll also makes assumptions about voting race wise. CNN predicts Republican House candidates will win the white vote by only 1 point, but in the 2016 exit polls, there was a gap of 60-38 favoring Republicans.
The general public should consider the history of polling, and how frequently individual polls, and even the average of polls, can be wrong. Just ask Congressmen Joe Crowley.
Based on the RealClearPolitics average of major polls, at no point in the 2016 election cycle (from May to November) did Republicans have a lead on this question, and yet Republicans won the national popular vote for the House by one point and maintained control of the chamber.
CNN polls are not always this wrong. In 2016, the last CNN poll of the generic ballot question favored Democrats by three points, whereas Republicans won the national popular vote by one point.
Rasmussen Reports’ second latest poll has Democrats and Republicans tied at 45 percent on the generic ballot question, the latest has Democrats up by a single point. And Rasmussen, lest we forget, was the most accurate polling organization in 2016, predicting only a narrow two-point victory for Hillary Clinton in the popular vote.
Polls are not completely useless, but voting Americans should not except any poll as scripture. They should also keep in mind that recent polling by major news organizations reveals a clear and consistent bias in favor of Democrats.
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