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Polling Suggests Biden and Sanders Are the Democratic Frontrunners

             11/23/2018

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Recent polling of 1431 “likely Democrat voters” in the United States indicates predictable trends on the importance of issues, favorability of candidates, and hopes for the future for those on the American left. First published on the conservative news site “Washington Free Beacon,” the results by TargetPoint Consulting seem to indicate a very strong sentiment for universal healthcare and gun control, but with fast-fading faith and support for Hillary Clinton as a candidate when compared to other Democratic contenders.

The Demographics

Of all TargetPoint’s recipients considered likely to vote Democrat, the majority (59 percent) were female and of the age of at least 55 (44 percent). Approximately two-thirds were white and a quarter were black. 8 percent were Hispanic and the remainder was split evenly between Asian and “other.” Only 67 percent of what the firm determined to be “likely democratic voters” actually self-identified as democrats, with 19 percent identifying as independents, and even 10 percent identifying as Republicans.

Breaking Down the Numbers

When asked “if the 2020 Democratic Primary and Caucuses were being held today, who would you be voting for?” the most support came behind Barack Obama’s former Vice President, Joe Biden, receiving 29 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second place with 20 percent, and Hillary Clinton received only 8 percent, tied with Oprah Winfrey. However, in more specific questions where respondents were asked if they would rather vote for Clinton or one other person such as Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti, businessman Michael Bloomberg, or former Secretary of State John Kerry, Hillary’s numbers were much more favorable. It’s important to note, however, that early before an election, frontrunners often change. Before 2016, Ben Carson and Jeb Bush were seen as the Republican frontrunners.

On issue polling, a full 70 percent thought it was more important to presume innocence compared to the 30 percent who support believing all female sexual assault accusers. 64 percent supported allowing all immigrants into the country regardless of skill when asked specifically if there should be job skill-based restrictions on potential immigrants. In terms of voters’ top priority, the largest percent was government-provided healthcare at 37 percent. In second place was repealing the second amendment at 24 percent. Other important issues included raising taxes, relaxing immigration laws and increasing funding to Planned Parenthood.

Analysis

Immediately, the results seem to indicate Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders as the frontrunners for the 2020 presidential race, despite the fact that Bernie lost the primary back in 2016. The two men represent considerably different views, possibly indicative of the anti-establishment rift seen in the 2016 primaries. Sanders, a self-professed “democratic socialist” has been pushing for universal programs across the nation from Medicare to college education, while Biden is perceived as more of a moderate, compared to Bill Clinton by The Nation Magazine.

The fact that likely Democrats see healthcare reform as their number one issue is no surprise either, since the unreasonably high costs of healthcare in America are indeed devastating and life-threatening for those not covered by their employer or Medicare, however prominent Republicans like Texas Senator Ted Cruz blame government over-regulation for driving up costs and stifling competition. They see drastically reducing the costs of entry in the pharmaceutical industry via de-regulation as a better solution than paying current prices with taxpayer money.

It should also be noted that the consulting firm, TargetPoint, who collected the data, is a conservative organization, who provide survey information to primarily Republican candidates as opposition research.

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