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Podcast | Ep21 - The Left Strikes Back, Full Midterm Analysis

             11/11/2018



                                                                    

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The Democratic Party has taken control of the House of Representatives with a margin somewhere between 11-17 seats, gaining a total of nearly 35-40 seats overall. Meanwhile, the Republicans have increased their Senate majority making this election essentially a split verdict between Trump country, that has solidified itself as more red, and the id of the nation (the House) impulsively voting to diminish Trump’s capacity to advance his legislative agenda for the next two years.

Although on the surface this may seem like extraordinarily bad news to those who regularly consume Ceccpoint content, it is far from it given it given historical precedent. The marginal utility of a narrow (and largely symbolic) house majority for the Democrats might prove to become a liability in 2020, and especially so if Trump is able to use moderates to continue to pass popular legislation with the assistance of his party’s increased control of the Senate. Though the Democrats will revel in their short-term symbolic victory in one single battle, they have effectively increased their chances of losing the war, but since when have Democrats ever thought in such a low time preference way?

President Trump and the general right-wing coalition more broadly have managed to stave off an intense blue wave and are in a decent position to push forward with both their agenda and path to long-term victory.

Overall the GOP has lost some ground but is still significantly in power, controlling most state legislatures, governorships, the Senate, and the Presidency, leaving them in a position to continue on their path to victory. The next major battle will take place in the 2020 elections and the Republican Party will begin its preparations shortly.

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